"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social

Ancient & military historian specializing in the Roman economy and military. PhD from UNC History. More impressive credential is that I have beaten both Dark Souls and Elden Ring.

Blogs at acoup.blog

My sinking gut feeling yesterday was that we had just witnessed America's Suez Crisis moment...and that feeling is not going away today.
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Like I am looking at headlines right now and not one of them reads, "Oh shit, we might have just killed freedom of navigation, the foundation of the global economic order."

They are all variations on 'both sides declare victory, ceasefire is fragile.'
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This whole crisis really brings out quite strongly to me how Trump thrives in the fact that he focuses on things the median voter can see (gas prices), but also in the fact that much of the media is unwilling or unprepared to explain the more fundamental things that have broken here.
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Reposted by "Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux
bafriedman.bsky.social's profile picture
B. A. Friedman @bafriedman.bsky.social
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Ok on a serious note, it cannot be exaggerated how bad formalized Iranian control of the Strait is for the world. The entire global economy rests on an American guarantee of free commercial shipping. That guarantee is gone. We don’t know exactly what will happen but none of it will be good.
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Pardon my language, but...no fucking way, right?
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Naturally, there are mods on Nexus that fix this.

Which is equally hilarious.
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Meanwhile, in gaming: I realize making fun of Starfield is, at this point, beating a very dead horse, but the fact that having mods or creations enabled disables achievements is peak "what were you thinking?" design.

*Everyone* plays Bethesda games with mods, you nuts.
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On consideration, I think if the deal stands along the lines that have been reported, with Iran continuing to extract its tolls and without making any other concessions, I'd say this is probably the worst the United States has ever lost a war.

Truly a shocking outcome, if it holds.
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My expectation for this war was 'everyone loses,' but to be honest, if those terms hold and Iran gets to pull in $40bn a year from the Strait to fund their proxies and build their nuclear program - if this is the deal - then honestly the Iranian regime simply...won.
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So the terms of the ceasefire, if they held beyond the end of hostilities, would be Trump giving Iran something like 25-Iran-Deals worth of cash *per year* in exchange for not limiting their nuclear program at all, apparently (they have not promised to give up the HEU).
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For comparison, the JCPOA ('Iran Deal') payment that everyone in MAGA excoriates was $1.7bn.

The $2m-per-ship toll regime on the Strait would generate at normal traffic something like $40bn *each year* for Iran (120 ships per day at $2m per split 50/50 with Oman).
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So apparently the ceasefire deal includes Iran continuing to charge tolls (split with Oman) on transit through the Strait, as reported by the NYT, AP and others.

If that's true, I have a hard time seeing this as anything other than a capitulation by Trump. Just abject surrender.
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badancient.bsky.social's profile picture
Bad Ancient/ Owen Rees @badancient.bsky.social
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This may be the first ever review published about BadAncient.com, a website that was set up during Covid lockdowns to keep my hands busy, and to teach students how the ancient world still has resonance today!

taz.de/Website-zur-Antike/!6164597/
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Yeah and see, I don't think Iran understands itself as having agreed to do that.

They're saying they agreed to their own 10-point plan, which is not this thing.

bsky.app/profile/fintwitter.bsky.social/post/3miwvg5nb6v2l
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So the state-of-play here as I understand it is that the USA and Iran both agreed to a two-week ceasefire, but understand themselves (or claim to) as agreeing to a ceasefire on different terms re: the strait of hormuz, so it is a kind of 'clap your hands if you believe' sort of ceasefire.
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unavaleable.bsky.social's profile picture
Reconstructionist @unavaleable.bsky.social
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okay but does that actually mean they open the strait
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I'm guessing the agreement ends up being one where the strait stays closed during negotiations, which just enhanced Iranian leverage and hinders our own but who knows.🤷
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I can't imagine Iran accepting a temporary ceasefire that opens the strait and blows all of their leverage so I'm not sure what the zone of potential agreement here is.

But who knows? 🤷
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deadcarl.bsky.social's profile picture
Dead Carl @deadcarl.bsky.social
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For part 2 of my critique of John Boyd’s representation of Clausewitz, we’re turning our attention to friction, Schwerpunkts, mass, and the overall Clausewitzian critique of Boyd

🧵 in summary

open.substack.com/pub/deadcarl/p/the-further-misconceptions-of-john?r=1ro41m&utm_medium=ios
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irhottakes.bsky.social's profile picture
Starfire’s Deranged Neocon Foreign Policy Podcast @irhottakes.bsky.social
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I am completely sincere when I say they need to build statues of this woman. People need to name their babies after her.
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jwlicinio.bsky.social's profile picture
🏳️‍⚧️ June Licinio 🪬 @jwlicinio.bsky.social
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I don't think Kamala Harris would've threatened to commit genocide in Iran on a random Tuesday morning a month after starting an unwinnable war with them for no reason
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Because there is the realm of, "we tried our best, things go wrong, big countries can break big things by accident" and then there is the realm of, "we made an intentionally negligent choice because we thought it was funny and wouldn't effect us."

And this is the latter.
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I realize one is not supposed to say this in politics, but it is just clearly the case that 77,302,580 voters have blood on their hands for this, bear real, moral culpability for deciding that it was a good idea to put idiot Fox News Grandpa back in power for [reasons].
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So there's the 'whole civilization will die tonight' angle of this insanity, but I was also struck by the WHO KNOWS? coming from the guy with access to the largest intelligence gathering apparatus in history and with access to huge nuclear arsenal.

Like, you, dude. You are supposed to know.
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