I can't imagine Iran accepting a temporary ceasefire that opens the strait and blows all of their leverage so I'm not sure what the zone of potential agreement here is.

But who knows? 🤷

April 07, 2026 - 22:42 UTC

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you might be able to convince them to keep it open with a toll. that gets them money they need and normalizes the idea that tolling the strait is legitimate, while allowing oil to flow to the rest of the world, which seems like a workable compromise
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Maybe they get future help from Pakistan on their nuclear program? If Pakistan can thread the needle and get it done more power to them. It would be great for the IRGC and Turdpants but I am unsure if Turdpants knows how to show gratitude for diplomatic cover for an off ramp.
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They'll offer something halfway back to the original status quo AND they'll hold out a Solid Gold Dingbat with his name (*TRVMP*) on it. He'll have to sign with the Autopen because he won't let go of his gold dingbat.
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How much leverage do they actually lose compared to the ability to just closing it again if struck?
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They can re-close it at will. The US can't stop Iran from doing so regardless of how many assets it moves in. They aren't losing any meaningful leverage.
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If they let the currently trapped ships out, price of oil goes down, they lose leverage for a while.

I think they'd only do it if they're planning on outright surrender.
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I think it is nonsense. Assume Trump is lying unless there are three external pieces of evidence to prove otherwise.
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I'm guessing the agreement ends up being one where the strait stays closed during negotiations, which just enhanced Iranian leverage and hinders our own but who knows.🤷
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Pakistan does have one thing Iran probably desperately wants to the point of surrendering this leverage for though….
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Makes you wonder *which* critical infrastructure they hacked into over the past day.
They sure learned after stuxnet.
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I feel like there's a lot of room for "we are opening the straits but because our military exigencies you have to follow our procedure until the armistice is signed" which keeps traffic throttled in practice.
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bsky.app/profile/apnews.com/post/3miwuacymdn2z
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Anyways, Israel will very likely break this truce in a few days, certainly less than a week. Why would't they?
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Just saw a headline of a new missile volley from Iran to Israel.
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irritating to be caught between lunatic narcissists and liars
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As I wrote in my last: “Iran only needs to inflict enough pain in the strait to feel that the US understands that it miscalculated in its attack. Since the US actually did miscalculate, this would not be all that difficult to achieve; future US admins are unlikely to repeat the attempt.“
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Of course, the Israeli factor complicates this, as they don’t have the same interest in a ceasefire.
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I'm sure this will be another TACO situation but boy am I tired of having to bang the pots and pans together every time pedo grandpa wants to touch the hot stove.
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They've proven they can compel closure of the strait by force and that nobody has the means to stop that. I don't think that allowing traffic now actually changes this fact, they could decide to close it again if they wanted.
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I think Iran would only lose their leverage if it's clear that they cannot or will not close the Straits again. And I think the opposite would very much be true-- no matter what the US does, Iran will retain the ability to close the Straits whenever they wish.
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Feels like a lot of people are skipping over that part of the post
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To me it looks very likely that Trump will effectively surrender and cede every Iranian demand because he doesn't want to deal with the problems he creates. It's the easiest and most comfortable approach for him: bluster, then fold, same in the knowledge other people will pay the price.
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In trump's statement elsewhere, he references (favorably!) the ten-point plan that Iran submitted, which includes that $2m/ship toll that I think you mentioned in NEONLIBERALISM with Samantha Hancox-Li; that'd be leverage enough, right?
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it's just a taco situation imo

Dear leader will be back at it in a few weeks
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