They can re-close it at will. The US can't stop Iran from doing so regardless of how many assets it moves in. They aren't losing any meaningful leverage.

April 07, 2026 - 22:48 UTC

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If they let the currently trapped ships out, price of oil goes down, they lose leverage for a while.

I think they'd only do it if they're planning on outright surrender.
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The spot price is going to stay elevated for the rest of the year due to the disruption, and next time it will rise much faster.

Choosing status quo ante is much better for them than all the desal plants in the region getting hit, as we were headed for.
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