My sinking gut feeling yesterday was that we had just witnessed America's Suez Crisis moment...and that feeling is not going away today.

April 08, 2026 - 15:57 UTC

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Well since I woke up...

- Iran claims ceasefire applies to Lebanon, Israel & US say it doesn't.
- Claims Hezbollah attempted a coup d'etat in Beirut.
- Iran closes Hormuz again after opening for ~12 hours?
- UAE launches airstrikes against Iranian oil refinery on Lavan.

So...about that ceasefire.
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But the scenario here could end up being, 'USA starts/intensifies a regional conflict, loses and backs out, leaving the regional conflict behind with global consequences' which is still a power-reconfiguring event of a Suez-Crisis kind.
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This is much worse than Suez. It could really break the world order on a basic level.
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All Empires fall eventually.
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Yeah... American greatness like Hemingway's bankruptcy... slowly, then quickly

The loss of US primacy was already happening... but has now happened.
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It pretty definitively was.

We started a fight premised on our status as a superpower capable of accomplishing an extraordinary objective on the other side of the world. We capitulated yesterday, having failed to achieve the objective and ceding a massive geopolitical advantage to our adversary.
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At least the Anglo-French (and the Israelis) achieved their military goals. For a political price.
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I've been meaning to ask, what do you think a sane normal US administration, Democrat or Republican, that got into power a few days ago, should do/have done? What are their strategic goals and what are their steps to get there, given the Trump mess that already occurred?
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Tell the American people that opening Hormuz is required for gas prices to come down in the long term and to make that happen we need to put pressure on Iran, then declare a blockade, with a promise to remove it if Iran allows free and unrestricted transit of the strait.
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Keep in mind that a sane, normal, US administration would have stayed the hell out of this mess. Even Reagan and G.W. Bush declined getting sucked into open war with Iran.
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Well, the ceasefire has already fallen apart because of disagreement over whether it includes Lebanon, so the long-term outcome is up in the air.

Makes us look like fucking idiots with no control over our allies though.
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TBH I suspect Trump agreed it included Lebanon, Israel decided to blow up the agreement, and Trump is desperately trying to save face.
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As pointed out in this thread, all empires fall eventually, and I've considered for many years that we're not exempt by any means...but that having been said, it absolutely didn't have to happen this way.
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Oh it's worse than that.
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I really don't think losing the strait is worse than Suez. Suez was the finale to the collapse of an empire that started in 1947.
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Part of me knows that and part of me desperately wants to hope that we can, in some way, recover from this.

Rome, after all, had crises and blunders from which it emerged stronger, in the end. I suppose I have to hope we still have that in us. Against all evidence.
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What if the Suez Crisis but also Iran-Contra but also the Agadir Crisis but also the Tanker War but also the Barbary Pirates but also the Teapot Dome Scandal but also Watergate but somehow also the 1938 Munich Agreement?
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The big question for me is whether this gets seen as an American defeat or a Trump one. Nice thing about a personalist regime is that the Supreme Leader can soak up all the blame once you replace him. And maybe that works here?
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If they can impeach him there's a better chance of passing it off as a Trump defeat
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We still blame the Germans for the Nazis. We just literally one short of actual genocide for the Americans to be placed on that same pedestal
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I deeply suspect this is still going to be going on into the next administration
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bsky.app/profile/ianford.bsky.social/post/3miynj443oc2q
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Become compliant?
Us always was vicious.
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This is genuinely worse. Stupid Suez Galaxy.
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I was thinking that from the start. Carriers of limited use, terrified of human losses, zero international support…
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In a few weeks or months they're going to blow up a lot of Cuban government buildings and a couple hospitals, and be shocked again when they're not greeted as liberators, and threaten to bomb the people of Cuba into submission, and lift the embargo for zero concessions, and declare victory.
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Arguably the Suez Crisis is what demolished the UK's standing on the world stage, and it never really recovered.

Is that the kind of comparison you are thinking of, or something else?
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I think the difference is that in the case of Suez it was notable for passing the torch of a "Global Order"from one dominant western power to another.
This, if it does turn out to be Suezey, is that order _itself_ having the Suez moment. Feels like we need to go far further back to find similar
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But that worked out well!

(checks notes)

Oh.
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...looking at the US-Israel situation and wondering who's the proxy...
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It's not on the same scale as Suez.

It's way, way worse than that...
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The optics are honestly better in the sense that Britain was humiliated on the world stage and it became obvious that the US could tell it to back down at will.

This looks like Trump is bad at diplomacy, which is awful, but not the same.
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the Suez Moment, except if Anthony Eden bullied Nasser into nationalizing the canal and then accepted him doing it
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The Egyptians nationalizing the canal represents a brilliant new partnership between the UK and Egypt
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And also because Nasser had genuinely more leverage rather than Ike telling him to stop
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America have no any policy now (except orders from Kremlin and China)
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Two centuries ago, a young USA fought wars that stopped merchant ships from needing to pay tribute to foreign warlords. (Barbary Wars etc.)

Now it fights wars so that merchant ships end up paying tribute.

history.state.gov/milestones/1801-1829/barbary-wars
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I’m still waiting for the next shoe to drop.
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Swapping the petrodollar for the petrocoin, or whatever we are going to call this new mess, is the real monetary cherry on the slop sundae.
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I know this feeling

bsky.app/profile/simonpease.bsky.social/post/3mh43tnygpc2i
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I don’t think it has sunk in yet in the US among the general public how bad the consequences of this war is going to be. The total number of people facing acute hunger could hit record levels in 2026, potentially bringing the global total to 363 million, according to the UN World Food Programme.
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Let's hope so in many ways.
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Given the misuse and abuse by America of its hegemony the past 70 years...maybe not such a bad thing
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Sadly, I think it’s far worse, and it marks a turning point internationally. America as we know it is no more.
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Scaramucci
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