But the scenario here could end up being, 'USA starts/intensifies a regional conflict, loses and backs out, leaving the regional conflict behind with global consequences' which is still a power-reconfiguring event of a Suez-Crisis kind.

April 08, 2026 - 19:05 UTC

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Currently seems that with the threat of striking Iran's infrastructure temporarily off the table, Iran is now going full tilt at GCC infrastructure.

I don't see how the US stays out of that if it continues.
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If that happens, the impact of the ceasefire in practice will be to weaken our negotiating position (because we have already, in principle, agreed to Iran's demands) and momentarily moved futures markets.

Which is...not a lot.
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What off the table? The only thing stopping resuming strikes by US forces is waiting for ammo to arrive.. Trump already demonstrated his infidelity by attacking Iran twice during negotiations, how can anyone trust the US word ever even after he gone? Look at the Kurds for god sake.
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I mean Israel has literally went "Ceasefire? Fuck that" And escalated its invasion of lebannon
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"US president doesn't want to do regime change war, encourages people to overthrow their own government, watches them get slaughtered, commits US to indefinite and steadily eroding policy of containment" is also movie I've seen before.
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