That's run for 41 days already, so that's ~490m bbls that have essentially been destroyed - they weren't loaded, weren't drilled, weren't refined, they didn't happen, they're basically gone.

Pre-war the global 'glut' was, I understand, estimated at ~2m bbl per day.

April 10, 2026 - 16:25 UTC

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I think one missing piece is the floating buffer. Ie the typical cycle seems to have been: load oil -> sail to target area -> wait for sufficiently interesting offer -> repeat. For the amount of oil in “wait” I’ve seen speculation of hundreds of m barrels. That might ”safe” the users
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But the hard physical problem seems to be on the production side. You seem to can’t turn off either wells or refineries without damaging long-term output. And for that buffer I’ve heard an from 2 weeks to 2 months. The lower bound we’ve crashed long ago. The upper might still have some room
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So if production resumes at pre-war levels, like, *today,* prices should normalize in ::checks notes:: December. Late December.

And production is not going to snap back to pre-war levels immediately, that is going to take months.
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So, the exact time period that the monthly futures contracts for Brent crude oil reach a new equilibrium value and maybe a couple months before West Texas Intermediate ones do?

I think you're overstating the irrationality of the actual market.
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FWIW, when the cease fire was announced, December oil basically didn’t budge.

Front month plummeted $20/barrel, December barely dropped
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Now that's just my 'guy who can do basic math' numbers, I am sure the folks who deal in actual physical barrels are doing much more sophisticated analysis that works through a lot more of the complexities.

But the upshot here is the hangover from this is likely to be long.
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Any date after the midterms works for me
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The US is also still receiving pre-war shipments for potentially the next week. We haven’t processed the physical losses yet—in the “opens today” scenario we haven’t even hit the peak to come down from
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Don't neglect the fact that another major petroleum producer(Russia) is suffering significant degradation of their production and delivery infra structure(well deserved, but still significant).
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