Now that's just my 'guy who can do basic math' numbers, I am sure the folks who deal in actual physical barrels are doing much more sophisticated analysis that works through a lot more of the complexities.

But the upshot here is the hangover from this is likely to be long.

April 10, 2026 - 16:28 UTC

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There is also the time it will take global shipping to recover from all of this - tankers diverted elsewhere will have to return to the Gulf and then there will be a substantial lag from when oil production restarts in the Gulf to when refined product arrives at the end user.
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And ceasefire or no, every day that Iran keeps the strait basically throttled at 10% normal traffic is adding several days - possibly as much as a week - to the time it'll take for energy markets to normalize.

And they might be throttling traffic for months! Or forever!
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Feels like the USN needs to declare a blockade as leverage vs Iran. Ofc, they, as an authoritarian regime, may have more stomach for the pain that ensues. Right?
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Theres some displacement from the floating storage and IEA and 3-4 mbpd from east-west which helps a lot.

Other big thing is that people are just cutting production already
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bsky.app/profile/no1inheaven.bsky.social/post/3mj2b5y6suf2g
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There is also no *reason* for prices to go down. The only reason prices will actually fall is if there is a glut of oil and supply needs to be reined in. This is unlikely in the near future!
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A ton of physical oil infrastructure has been destroyed. With control of the strait still contested and oil demand structurally falling due to electrification, why should the Gulf states bother spending their money to get up to pre war production levels (when there was a pre war glut anyway?)
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