And ceasefire or no, every day that Iran keeps the strait basically throttled at 10% normal traffic is adding several days - possibly as much as a week - to the time it'll take for energy markets to normalize.

And they might be throttling traffic for months! Or forever!

April 10, 2026 - 16:32 UTC

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bsky.app/profile/no1inheaven.bsky.social/post/3mj2b5y6suf2g
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Theres some displacement from the floating storage and IEA and 3-4 mbpd from east-west which helps a lot.

Other big thing is that people are just cutting production already
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Displacement of oil from one place to another just changes where the oil is being priced high though, right? Or am I understanding this wrong?
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ive seen way fewer headlines about industry idling than i thought, like mining and whatnot, are you seeing a lot of that?
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Feels like the USN needs to declare a blockade as leverage vs Iran. Ofc, they, as an authoritarian regime, may have more stomach for the pain that ensues. Right?
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The problem at this point is internal and political: declaring a blockade (thus restarting the war, a blockade is an act of war) *after* declaring a 'decisive military victory' would be a massively politically damaging decision for the administration.
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It seems pretty likely that they haven't gone this route because China would object to the USN seizing Chinese flagged ships.
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