I think one missing piece is the floating buffer. Ie the typical cycle seems to have been: load oil -> sail to target area -> wait for sufficiently interesting offer -> repeat. For the amount of oil in “wait” I’ve seen speculation of hundreds of m barrels. That might ”safe” the users

April 10, 2026 - 16:42 UTC

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But the hard physical problem seems to be on the production side. You seem to can’t turn off either wells or refineries without damaging long-term output. And for that buffer I’ve heard an from 2 weeks to 2 months. The lower bound we’ve crashed long ago. The upper might still have some room
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