Don't neglect the fact that another major petroleum producer(Russia) is suffering significant degradation of their production and delivery infra structure(well deserved, but still significant).

The US is also still receiving pre-war shipments for potentially the next week. We haven’t processed the physical losses yet—in the “opens today” scenario we haven’t even hit the peak to come down from

Any date after the midterms works for me

There is also no *reason* for prices to go down. The only reason prices will actually fall is if there is a glut of oil and supply needs to be reined in. This is unlikely in the near future!

And ceasefire or no, every day that Iran keeps the strait basically throttled at 10% normal traffic is adding several days - possibly as much as a week - to the time it'll take for energy markets to normalize.

And they might be throttling traffic for months! Or forever!

There is also the time it will take global shipping to recover from all of this - tankers diverted elsewhere will have to return to the Gulf and then there will be a substantial lag from when oil production restarts in the Gulf to when refined product arrives at the end user.

FWIW, when the cease fire was announced, December oil basically didn’t budge.

Front month plummeted $20/barrel, December barely dropped

So, the exact time period that the monthly futures contracts for Brent crude oil reach a new equilibrium value and maybe a couple months before West Texas Intermediate ones do?

I think you're overstating the irrationality of the actual market.