In terms of prices actually normalizing, just some back-of-envelope math, 20m barrels moved through Hormuz normally; maybe 5m can redirect via pipelines. The remaining 15 is down 90%.

So that's a ~13.5m bbl reduction. Let's be conservative, say 12m.

April 10, 2026 - 16:24 UTC

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That's run for 41 days already, so that's ~490m bbls that have essentially been destroyed - they weren't loaded, weren't drilled, weren't refined, they didn't happen, they're basically gone.

Pre-war the global 'glut' was, I understand, estimated at ~2m bbl per day.
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So if production resumes at pre-war levels, like, *today,* prices should normalize in ::checks notes:: December. Late December.

And production is not going to snap back to pre-war levels immediately, that is going to take months.
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I think one missing piece is the floating buffer. Ie the typical cycle seems to have been: load oil -> sail to target area -> wait for sufficiently interesting offer -> repeat. For the amount of oil in “wait” I’ve seen speculation of hundreds of m barrels. That might ”safe” the users
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