@timoconnorbl.bsky.social

Sport-obsessed lawyer. Pinotiste par larmes versées. All views personal.

"And now abideth faith, hope, charity, these three; but the greatest of these is Cork." 1 Corkonians.

Reminder that people lost their jobs for saying Trump and his administration were racist
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Everyone is forgetting these marine workers trapped around the strait.
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I will note that Trump, SecDef, SouthCom, etc have been posted snuff films for many months now.

Killing for content is a feature of this administration's use of force.
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New — I wrote about the terror and loss of the last few days, mostly so we don’t forget.

www.thehandbasket.co/p/trump-iran-civilization-will-die
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Yah but I'm goin crazy out there at the lake.
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Lawyers looking at scientific papers can be worse, because we don't generally have the skillset to assess them. There are a lot of duff papers out there, after all.

We're not generally good on how scientific evidence based around statistics works, and I think it leads to overconfident pitfalls.
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In short, I don't think we understand - certainly don't use - statistical reasoning about populations or how scientific papers work, and they don't get our focus on an individual case.

It means that in cases where it turns on population analysis, it ends up getting messy, because we don't do that.
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That "is/isn't" switch means what what we don't do very well is things like sensitivity v. specificity, or p values, or that the existence of an individual outlier in a given case does not invalidate the statistical analysis of a population *because* they are an outlier. We don't think statistically
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It's a way of getting to a binary result, a "yes/no", based on a mix of induction (sufficient weight of authority demonstrating the principle) and deduction from it.

What it isn't is an assessment of statistical likelihood in a population. It always starts in the individual facts of one case.
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I think the way lawyers argue is, if not formally syllogistic, much closer to it and we use evidence in that way.

"A, and B, so more likely than not C; the correct interpretation of the law is that if C, then D, and the onus then shifts to prove that not-E, which they haven't, so E, so we win."
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As an aside: a genuine problem is that lawyers and scientists speak past each other, because there's a complete mismatch in the respective concepts of proof and how you go about proof.
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"Und doch habe ich allein, allein auf mich gestellt, ganz Iran erobert."
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Better men than ye tried to keep Richie out, boys, and nobody managed it, still less in NZ.

The GOAT of GOATs.
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Prepper billionaire maniacs: I am invulnerable, my protection is perfect, nobody can get in her to take this from me.

NZ: Au, Ruchie? Un the suyde, pluyse, bru, seeme ees eeever.
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NEW: Cardinal Pietro Parolin says that Pope Leo XIV cannot carry the weight of this war alone.

“There is a need for more voices of peace, more voices against the madness,” Parolin said, warning Leo risks becoming “a voice crying in the wilderness if it is not supported and helped concretely.”
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Finely observed by the great @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social
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A reporter asked Trump about Iran charging fees literally yesterday -- and his response was that we were going to get a cut of the action!
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it's actually really funny he keeps going on about 'the warrior ethos', because the whole focus on lethality is antithetical to basic military honour as it has been conceptualised for thousands of years in every society except the nazis and imperial japan
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if Lebanon isn’t part of the ceasefire zero reason to think these groups are either
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was that Melania speech one of Iran’s demands
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Fascinating, Zelensky coming out publicly more and more and saying that Trump is working with/for Putin. The Ukrainians seem to have determined that telling the truth is preferable to lying to please Trump.
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I don't write often about Taylor Swift, so when I do, I need to make it count. Here is my @sportico.bsky.social take on a new court ruling about arbitration clauses in Swift concert tickets and what that means for the sports world: www.sportico.com/law/analysis/2026/taylor-swift-fan-stubhub-ticket-dispute-arbitration-1234889686/.
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As then; so now.
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The hatred of fascists is a badge of honour for cyclists.
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❗️Zelensky rejects JD Vance’s remarks about “trading territory,” stating the US vice president is not involved in negotiations with Ukraine and Russia. He stressed that such comments reflect a lack of understanding of Ukraine’s sovereign territory and its significance. #Ukraine
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Not sure that associating himself with a family that ruled a short-lived, corrupt, unpopular, weak state that was quickly and easily crushed by a handful of irregular volunteers led by a guy born in Nice would be a great move by Bardella.
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Reposted by
atrupar.com's profile picture
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com
1d
Trump is having a normal one on Truth Social this morning
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Reposted by
atrupar.com's profile picture
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com
1d
Rep. Randy Fine: "We cannot let a terrorist regime that acts in belief with their faith have their ability to create a nuclear weapon"

(Has he ... has he ever listened to Pete Hegseth?)
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Marc Soler and Benilly out the front of Itzulia in a massive breakaway and daft stuff is happening.

Die hard, ciclismo that we love, die hard.
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Two reminders:

First, Robert E. Lee was never a general in an army recognized by the United States. You can annoy all the right people by referring to him as Col. Robert E. Lee, his actual rank.

Second, the primary flag of the Confederacy is the white one of surrender. To wit:
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