In short, I don't think we understand - certainly don't use - statistical reasoning about populations or how scientific papers work, and they don't get our focus on an individual case.

It means that in cases where it turns on population analysis, it ends up getting messy, because we don't do that.

April 09, 2026 - 23:05 UTC

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Lawyers looking at scientific papers can be worse, because we don't generally have the skillset to assess them. There are a lot of duff papers out there, after all.

We're not generally good on how scientific evidence based around statistics works, and I think it leads to overconfident pitfalls.
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