I find that the chief culprits are military defectors. Nonviolent revolutionaries often court military actors in the hope that they will defect from the regime and bring it crashing down.

March 20, 2026 - 20:48 UTC

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However, while military defection often helps nonviolent revolutionaries to bring down dictators, it significantly increases the risk of coups and civil wars post-revolution.
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Military defectors in Sudan (2021) and Egypt (2013) hijacked democracy and reestablished authoritarian rule, while those in Libya (2011) and Yemen (2014) transformed nonviolent conflicts into civil war.
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