Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com

I'm a political scientist in the @mccourtschool.bsky.social. I study trust in institutions & media effects on the public. Apologies for typos.
Web page: https://www.jonathanmladd.com/

Why do I post about the Constitution and the rule of law? Not because I think these things are self-enforcing! But because it is our duty to live up to them. And one goal of the Trumpist movement is to make such bold assertions of power that we are disoriented and forget our rights and liberties.
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Humanity did that. Science did that. Publicly-funded research did that. Excellent universities did that. Diversity did that. International cooperation did that.

Artemis II is a perfect example of what we can do at our best.

Welcome home, Integrity crew!
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adamisacson.com's profile picture
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com
7h
So good to catch a glimpse of the absolutely massive but lately eclipsed America that’s not boat strikes, detention warehouses, civilizational threats, AI grifts, and legislative cowardice. More, please.
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B. A. Friedman @bafriedman.bsky.social
12h
Ok on a serious note, it cannot be exaggerated how bad formalized Iranian control of the Strait is for the world. The entire global economy rests on an American guarantee of free commercial shipping. That guarantee is gone. We don’t know exactly what will happen but none of it will be good.
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jonathanmladd.com's profile picture
Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com
16h
A lot of weak analysis on AI and the economy. The same basic macroeconomic dynamics still apply:
1) Beware the "lump of labor" fallacy. Increases in technological productivity can cause disruption, but do not mechanically or even usually reduce overall employment. They increase overall wealth.
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For the record, this take is correct. Just not popular online.
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I love Buffy, but Firefly is mediocre.
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Tom Pepinsky @tompepinsky.com
1d
The answer is that students now correctly anticipate that the federal government will punish the entire campus --- cancelling federal grants, opening investigations, and deporting international students --- if even a handful of students dare to speak out on any political issue.
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For more: Here is Paul Krugman on the lump of labor fallacy in the NY Times: www.nytimes.com/2003/10/07/opinion/lumps-of-labor.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ZlA.cQTy.18PTWqBgAuin&smid=url-share But Krugman's best column on the lump of labor fallacy is this older one: web.mit.edu/krugman/www/hotdog.html
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There is no economic disruption brought on by AI or other new technology that can't be mitigated (and harnessed to create higher standards of living!) with the right policy of taxes and government redistribution. The question is the same as always: Will we adopt equitable tax and transfer policies?
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3) Big jumps in productivity brought on by new technology can produce huge disruptions in the labor market while increasing overall wealth (fewer of some jobs, more of others). Given that overall wealth increases, whether this produces human misery depends on government tax and transfer policies.
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2) It is monetary policy (that is, the Federal Reserve) that, in general, determines the unemployment rate. As well as how the Fed responds to exogenous natural disasters another similar events. Productivity growth affects wealth, but usually not the unemployment rate, that's monetary policy.
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A lot of weak analysis on AI and the economy. The same basic macroeconomic dynamics still apply:
1) Beware the "lump of labor" fallacy. Increases in technological productivity can cause disruption, but do not mechanically or even usually reduce overall employment. They increase overall wealth.
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👏
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Happy Surrender and Freedom Day! On April 9, 1865, Robert E. Lee and the Army of Northern Virginia surrendered to Ulysses S. Grant and the Army of the Potomac. home.nps.gov/apco/planyourvisit/annual-commemoration-of-surrender-and-freedom-day.htm
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rincewind.run's profile picture
Micah @rincewind.run
2d
*talking to teenage militant atheist self*

current me: okay so there’s a big fight between the government and the catholic church

teenage me: got it, so we’re obviously on the side of the government

current me: I, uh, you might want to sit down for this one
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Christopher Hale @christopherjhale.bsky.social
2d
UPDATE: Letters from Leo can now independently confirm that the meeting took place — and that the Vatican was so alarmed by the Pentagon’s tactics that Leo shelved plans to visit America.

Some officials saw their reference to an Avignon papacy as a threat to use military force against the Holy See.
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A+
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McSweeney's @mcsweeneys.net
2d
"By week one, I was already tired of his anti-rich, pro-Samaritan bullshit. I wanted to take a course in Christianity, not liberalism."
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sarahposner.bsky.social's profile picture
Sarah Posner @sarahposner.bsky.social
3d
The two week theory remains undefeated
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professormusgrave.bsky.social's profile picture
Paul Musgrave @professormusgrave.bsky.social
3d
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Pam Herd @pamherd.bsky.social
3d
We do now know the NSF is proceeding with dissolving the Social and Behavioral Sciences Division. Congress might reverse it, but it is now already underway. YOU CAN NO LONGER SUBMIT FUNDING PROPOSALS TO SBE. Program officers are being moved to different parts of the agency. Call your Congress member
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Paul Musgrave @professormusgrave.bsky.social
3d
Congress? An elegant weapon for a more civilized age
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Two things can be true at once: 1) These Trump statements come from a place of increasing weakness and desperation. 2) Trump is morally, temperamentally, and cognitively unfit for office. And weak and desperate world figures can still do horrible things. An extremely dangerous situation.
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Pundits and consultants who said Americans shouldn't resist Trump, and heads of industry and nonprofit organizations who allied with him, should feel regret and reverse course.
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jonathanmladd.com's profile picture
Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com
3d
Clinton was much more widely popular than national Democrats when she was a Senator and Secretary of State. But it was a huge mistake to assume that her popularity would stay the same in a major national campaign. When rhetoric about her changed, she was once again perceived as a coastal liberal.
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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com
3d
Here's another example (h/t Austin Horn): "There's a horse out there. it's an Arkansas Traveler. And that horse is bringing a lady jockey... (to) help us rebuild this party." youtu.be/6bvbNUpLntc?t=313
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jonathanmladd.com's profile picture
Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com
3d
For a long time pundits/strategists thought Hillary Clinton was the key to winning rural and Southern voters after the Bush & Obama years. And the fallacy was the same one many still commit: using current polls as a measure of future popularity. t.co/BRWwHKjEfL (h/t Drew Savicki)
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The president makes a public statement saying he plans to order the U.S. military to commit genocide tonight, as part of a war that has not been declared as required by our Constitution.
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com
4d
Q: You message has moved from 'the war is coming to an end' to 'we're gonna be bombing Iran to the stone ages.' So which is it?

TRUMP: Can't tell you. I don't know
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