The was also an incident during the Biden administration where a mediator nation (Egypt I think) changed a ceasefire proposal while transmitting it in an attempt to get both sides to agree to some sort of ceasefire.

April 07, 2026 - 23:43 UTC

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Didn’t he just confirm it on Truth Social though? Like why post it if it’s a transmitting issue?
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The thesis here is that when Iran and the US were talking to each other, the messages were altered in transmission by Pakistan. This is the first chance they've had to communicate directly with each other (via social media and press release) and would explain the discrepancies between them.
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I suppose the real question is if both sides want 'out' of the fight enough to declare victory and try to let this thing hold extending the status quo indefinitely into the future, or if one or both sides start shooting again.

The status quo sans bombing is pretty favorable to Iran?
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It's unclear how stable their government is even if the fighting were to end.
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As I see it, the status quo now is:
1) Iran controls the strait and throttles transit
2) The USA/Israel can attack at any time
3) Iran is still under sanctions
4) Iran retains HEU.
5) The regime survives and reconstitutes.

Which is...maybe not a worst case outcome, but a robustly bad-case outcome.
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The major instability is that Iran lost meaningful air defenses getting cocky enough to think there wouldn’t be a decapitation strike on them. China seems pretty motivated to end this dynamic, so they could (for good money) stand a passable new one up for them pretty quickly and that stops it.
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That's an interesting suggesting, particularly given that Pakistan has a good reason to de-escalate.
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