I suppose the real question is if both sides want 'out' of the fight enough to declare victory and try to let this thing hold extending the status quo indefinitely into the future, or if one or both sides start shooting again.

The status quo sans bombing is pretty favorable to Iran?

April 07, 2026 - 23:46 UTC

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The major instability is that Iran lost meaningful air defenses getting cocky enough to think there wouldn’t be a decapitation strike on them. China seems pretty motivated to end this dynamic, so they could (for good money) stand a passable new one up for them pretty quickly and that stops it.
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As I see it, the status quo now is:
1) Iran controls the strait and throttles transit
2) The USA/Israel can attack at any time
3) Iran is still under sanctions
4) Iran retains HEU.
5) The regime survives and reconstitutes.

Which is...maybe not a worst case outcome, but a robustly bad-case outcome.
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So much winning
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There wasn’t exactly a good-case scenario once it became clear the regime was going to survive
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The big variables are domestic troubles from the costs of the war and what this means for Iran’s influence in the region.
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Part of the points that the US agreed to might require actionable proof of not attacking again. Eg Pakistani/chinese tripwire forces etc.
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One of the problems with this is that it also snipes the most obvious solution to the Strait problem - a pipeline from KSA via Jordan to a port in Israel or Syria - because there's no commitment to maintaining tension or to negotiating a deal with Syria or Israel on this.
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How do you sanction the toll collector?
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Honestly, any concession by the US on (1) is a) insane b) upends 235 years of consistent US foreign policy about freedom of navigation and c) sets a precedent that basically destroys freedom of navigation in territorial waters everywhere on the planet.
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It's unclear how stable their government is even if the fighting were to end.
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