Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social

@climatecentral.org | Former KBTX Chief Meteorologist | AMS CBM #780 | TAMU Class of 2007 | 🔴 🌎 Climate Change is Real.

Central Texas: SLIGHT (2/4) risk for excessive rainfall Sunday.
Flash flooding possible from Waco to Austin, San Antonio, College Station, Houston.

Climate Connection: Moisture from the western Gulf, where water temps are ~3°F above average -- warmth made at least 10x MORE likely by climate change.
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Northern half of the Brazos Valley (including #bcstx) has been placed in a 2 out of 5 risk for strong/severe storms Sunday.

⚠️Locally:
• Heavy rain/possible flash flooding
• Isolated Strong wind gusts

Higher risk of large hail (up to egg size) west of our area
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9:50am Radar: Tricky day to nail down timing, intensity, and coverage of rain/storms across the Brazos Valley & #bcstx.

What is worth watching? This cluster of storms southwest of the area. If we're going to unzip the sky today, this will be one of the keys that does it
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Neat-ure!

#BrazosValleySunset
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⛈️Active weather pattern on deck for the middle of the country.

Storm Prediction Center's outlook Thursday (4/9) ➡️ Wednesday (4/15).

Daily rounds of storms and severe potential outlined from Texas, the Central Plains, to the Midwest & Great Lakes
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2026 Colorado State Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast has been released, LIVE at the National Tropical Weather Conference Thursday morning.

The outlook: near or slightly below average.

• 13 named storms
• 6 hurricanes
• 2 major hurricanes
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More details + check the data 👇

- www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202603

- www.climatecentral.org/report/monthly-attribution-overview-march-2026

- www.climatecentral.org/climate-shift-index-alert? href="/search?t=posts&q=record-breaking-march-heatwave-intensified-by-climate-change-continues-to-shatter-records-across-the-us">#record-breaking-march-heatwave-intensified-by-climate-change-continues-to-shatter-records-across-the-us
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🔴 Our overheating planet played a major role.

Out of 192 cities analyzed by @ClimateCentral, 111 experienced at least 1 week of heat made 2x+ more likely by human-caused warming.

The Southwest averaged 25 out of 31 days with heat made at least 2x more likely
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🔴 Our overheating planet played a major role.

Out of 192 cities analyzed by @climatecentral.org, 111 experienced at least 1 week of heat made 2x+ more likely by human-caused warming.

The Southwest averaged 25 out of 31 days with heat made at least 2x more likely
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Records were shattered.

📍 1,432 counties (half of CONUS, 1/3 of U.S. population) saw their warmest single March day on record
📍 10 states hit warmest March ever: AZ, CA, CO, ID, NV, NM, OK, TX, UT, WY
📍 500+ counties (1/4 of CONUS, 79M people) recorded warmest March on record
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OFFICIAL from @noaa.gov today: March blew the cover off the record books here in the U.S.

❗️Average temperature: 9.4° ABOVE the 20th century normal
❗️First time ANY month exceeded 9°F above average
❗️This was the ALL-TIME WARMEST March in the 132-year record

A quick 🧵
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We're 40% through meteorological spring🔽

A majority of the Lower 48 are off to a top 5 warmest start to the season.

📍Western U.S. & Texas: hottest start to spring on record (Mar 1 - Apr 5).
This on the heels of the all-time warmest winter of record.
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Western U.S. warmth that just...won't...stop...

🌡️Morning & afternoon temps running 15° - 20° ABOVE average. Top 10 daily records possible for many locations.

🔴Persistent spring warmth that is now more likely in a warming world
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Easter sweaters across the Brazos Valley today. Official high for #bcstx (Easterwood Airport): 66°

That's compared to:
• Shorts on Christmas Eve: 80°
• Shorts on Christmas Day: 79°
• Shorts on New Year's Day: 74°
• Shorts on Valentine's Day: 75°
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Looking forward to the insights of this one!

If you cover climate, health, or both, @climatecentral.org is teaming up with @sciline.org to help you report where these two worlds meet.

See you Tuesday at 1pm ET / 12pm CT / 10am PT
Registration link in the post below. 👇
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Reposted by Shel Winkley
davidcondos.bsky.social's profile picture
David Condos @davidcondos.bsky.social
10d
“It's not just one weird, wonky day… It's the fact that this has been lingering for as long as it has that really is showing the impacts of climate change.”- @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social of @climatecentral.org

How the March heat wave finished off Utah’s meager snowpack ⤵️

www.kuer.org/science-environment/2026-03-31/utahs-snowpack-usually-peaks-right-about-now-instead-its-mostly-gone
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Plan for a rainy, rumbly start to your Thursday morning, Brazos Valley.

Expect this to be run of the mill -- although a few storms (generally east of I-45) could push wind 40mph+

View of forecast radar as of Wednesday night ⤵️
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All in. All done.

‼️March 2026 became #bcstx's 2nd WARMEST March in 140+ years

🌡️The month ended 6.9° ABOVE the average of 62.1°
🌧️ 2.48" of rain was left behind (-0.93" BELOW average)

🔴Since 1970, March has been steadily warming, by ~5° on average
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Temps ~20-25° ABOVE average will help boost development of dryline storms Wednesday evening off the TX Panhandle caprock. That brings a hail/wind risk for West/Central OK.

Storms? Typical for April
The added near 90° heat? At least 2x more likely to occur in a warmer world
#okwx
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Reposted by Shel Winkley
climatecentral.org's profile picture
Climate Central @climatecentral.org
11d
📣Calling all health and climate journalists!

Join #ClimateCentral and @sciline.org for a webinar on reporting at the intersection of climate change and health.

📅Tuesday, April 7, 2026
⏰1 PM ET / 10 AM PT

Register ➡️ www.sciline.org/learn/data-journalism-reporting-where-climate-and-health-meet/
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Nearly every day in March had a climate fingerprint on Finland's record, snow-melting warmth.

🔴Attribution science shows that between March 10-15 and again March 19-27, the extreme heat would have been RARE (4x more likely) to VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE (5x more likely) without human-caused warming.
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#bcstx has seen less than 40% of normal rainfall since September.

The last 7 months should have left behind ~25".

We're more than 15 inches in the hole to close out March.
#bcstx #drought #txwx
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Much-needed drink of water looks to be in the works for Texas & the Brazos Valley as we step into #Easter Weekend.

@nws.noaa.gov's WPC outlook for potential rain Thursday - Easter Sunday ⤵️ #txwx #bcstx
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Phoenix just experienced March heat that would've been nearly impossible decades ago.

I had the opportunity to join @azfamily.com and chat records, what attribution science shows, and impacts on snowpack, fire risk, and summer outlook.

🍿👇
www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8G-K2SJ3iY
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🗣️"Every time we're using the word unprecedented or record, and it feels like it is getting a bit old to some people, but it is happening that frequently right now that we're pushing record highs to this level." - @bernwoodsplacky.bsky.social

More from @pbsnews.org ⤵️ www.pbs.org/newshour/show/how-climate-change-has-powered-the-heat-wave-blanketing-much-of-the-u-s
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I had a chance to chat with @chasecain.bsky.social about the wild weather we've been seeing lately...record heat, severe storms, and erratic spring patterns.

We dig into how extreme weather it's affecting allergies, ski seasons, your garden, and what El Niño could bring

🍿⤵️
youtu.be/gnhr-fy0c7k?si=mk6llHTjLfj-Bqcd
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The historic heatwave continues:

🌡️196 locations set or tied daily heat records today (March 25th).

♨️129 of those (66%) broke all-time March records—many resetting records they just set days ago.

🔴50.2M Americans experienced heat today made at least 3x more likely by our warming atmosphere.
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Reposted by Shel Winkley
climatecentral.org's profile picture
Climate Central @climatecentral.org
18d
Hundreds of records are falling across the Western U.S. in a heatwave deemed “virtually impossible without climate change.”

Join @coveringclimatenow.org and #ClimateCentral for a webinar unpacking what this means for our climate future.

📅: Thursday, March 26
⏰: 3 PM ET / 12 PM PT

Details below ⤵️
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