A catastrophic but realistic scenario he's alluding to could be something like this:

Ukraine fails to take its territories back and is forced to agree to a peace settlement that legalizes Russian control over Ukraine's eastern territories.

April 11, 2026 - 11:40 UTC

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That would be incredibly painful. It could cause massive outrage that would turn against the Ukrainian government.

Failing to remain united in this scenario could create another crisis that Russia could take advantage of militarily or politically -
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Potentially achieving its ultimate goal of wiping Ukraine off the map.

Like Belarus, it would cease to exist as a sovereign state.

It could cease to exist, period. No more independent Ukraine.

He's not kidding when he calls it catastrophic.
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