Not merely an opportunity cost where he'd get more value by doing something else, not merely unlikely to succeed, but so deeply toxic that Jeffries was forced to vote against it to avoid substantial political damage.

I don't think the evidence supports this, to put it mildly
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It's also worth remembering that there are costs to doing things which piss off dem voters. Dem congressional leadership is deeply unpopular among dem voters (not just bsky users! real people!), which will absolutely incur real, serious political costs.
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as just one example: it would be catastrophicly bad if platner, a no-shit (possibly former) nazi were to win the primary. It's good that Schumer is trying to stop him. But Schumer is likely to fail, in very large part because the maine dem primary electorate hates him.
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will it though? like, sincerely, will it though? or do we just have polls where people are hitting buttons for "I'm mad at everyone" and those people will continue to turn out just like they have for every special election?
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