As a note, you usually see this shared with a lot more red. I'm using 2024 voters, not all adults. Both numbers are important but I think the latter are more important for mid-terms.

April 01, 2026 - 20:44 UTC

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If I had the ear of someone with election-swaying resources, I'd tell them to look closely at the bubble states.

Approval is barely underwater in AK, IA, KS, SC, and TX.

Approval is barely above water in NE, MO, IN, LA, MS, and FL.
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Personally, I'd skip LA and MS, and probably give MO and IN lower priority too. Those states tend to be extremely inelastic.
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