Trump’s improved margins here are due to drops in turnout that disproportionately hurt democrats, a trend observed for all racial groups in the 18-29 demographic in 2024 vs 2020, and which disproportionately hurt cost Harris votes rather than Trump.

Not due to more young people supporting Trump.

August 06, 2025 - 15:36 UTC

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Turnout drops in this group in some states that flipped, like MI, are correlated with improved Trump performance in 2024 vs 2020.

You can see it by eyeball on these two maps (links to sources in alt text):
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