I’d like to see the SNP win a large majority, for John Swinney to request a referendum and for Starmer to grant one but realistically, none of that is going to happen.

At best, a slim majority for the SNP and no credible plans on what to do when Westminster refuse yet another referendum request.

April 12, 2026 - 06:01 UTC

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Think back to 2014. UK gov could not legally refuse a referendum. When a majority government holds a mandate from its manifesto after being voted into office,it is legally obligated to fulfill its promises.The world is watching,Starmer cannot say no if the SNP becomes the majority gov in Scotland
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I 'think' the basis of the argument is that UK constitutional law is what happened in the past and what is 'reasonable'.
Labour would say no (to indyref2) - but the supreme court may well disagree which would justify the SNP to convening a constitutional convention - and crucial EU agreement.
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Sheila, if that were true, the SNP could simply get confirmation from the UK government now with a simple question “if we get an overall majority in three weeks time, we will conduct an independence poll. Do you agree?”

They don’t have to wait to ask the question do they.

But they haven’t.
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I'm sorry Sheila, but that simply isn’t true.

Even if a party wins a majority on a manifesto, it is not legally obligated to carry out its promises.

A manifesto is not a legally binding contract.

There was no legal obligation on the UK Gov to grant a referendum, even after the SNP won a majority.
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