I think it almost certainly can’t hold, but yes, I’d agree with this.
April 08, 2026 - 01:44 UTC
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Yeah, precisely *because* this outcome is so bad, it is hard to see how it lasts.
Israel, at the very least, will have a huge incentive to see it fail and hostilities resume, unless they want Iran to have a military budget as large as theirs.
Israel, at the very least, will have a huge incentive to see it fail and hostilities resume, unless they want Iran to have a military budget as large as theirs.
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It'll also push Israel even closer to the GCC, whose entire economic raison d'être will be suddenly held hostage.
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I still think there’s a version where the US and Iran let that keep going and let Iran keep shooting back, but it’s all very tenuous.
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